Wednesday, October 7, 2009


A.J Ryder

We're about 5 weeks away from the biggest bout of the year as Phillipino sensation Manny Pacquiao takes on Miguel Cotto for the WBO Welterweight title. 888sports has put together some very solid odds in terms of the outright winner and the round betting, so we'll examine them and try to gauge just how things are going to pan out.

It's been obvious from the start that the favoured outcome is a Manny Pacquiao victory by KO or TKO. Virtually every single bookmaker does not favour this fight to go the distance, so only a dogged and determined performance from Cotto will get your 11/4 Pacquiao on points payout. Cotto on points is a lengthy 6/1.
In terms of winning the fight outright, Pacquiao is listed at 1/2, which is fairly decent (most sites are offering 2/5) and you'll find Cotto available at a 6/4 price. The draw is always lengthy and is listed at 25/1. There is pretty much no way that's going to happen here though.

Looking at the round-by-round betting, Pacquiao looks to be strongest in the 4-9 round where his odds are a slim 16/1 for the victory. Round 1 pays out at 33/1, round 2 can be backed at 25/1, the odds drop to 20/1 in round 3. They begin to rise again in round 10, moving back up to 20/1 while round 11 and 12 pays 25/1.

Cotto's odds shorten significantly between the 5-8 rounds where they are listed at a 25/1 margin. He is 40/1 for rounds 1 and 2, 33/1 for rounds 3 and 11 and 28/1 for rounds 4 and 10.

I think you can't really go anywhere but Pacquiao for the outright win and I actually think he could strike early, similar to how he handled Ricky Hatton a few months back. I'm backing him outright, and in rounds 2, 3 and 7.


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